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“A TSUNAMI OF PETRODOLLARS”… The expression is not us but let us regret we it because it is beautiful, pertinente and enjoys a terribly effective evocative capacity. Paternity in cost with Stephen Jen, chief-economist of division changes Morgan Stanley. This last wondered about the colossal redistribution, at the planetary level, of the richnesses - and the charts… - proceeding of the flight of the courses of oil. The figures of its study are very eloquent: on the basis of oil with 100 dollars the barrel, the only proven reserves of the exporting crude countries are estimated at 104.000 billion dollars (including 48.000 for the countries of the Gulf and 92.000 for OPEC…). 104.000 billion, that becomes a little difficult to visualize but, as comparison, that represents, facetious chance, the combined value of the world markets actions and obligations. But, especially, the receipts resulting from oil exports represent, always on the basis of 100 dollar the barrel, more than 2.000 billion dollars per annum. And like, always according to Stéphen Jen, the producer countries can assign hardly more than 10% of these receipts to local investments in infrastructures, a flood of petrodollars necessarily will fall down on the world financial markets, particularly on the actions… By widening the debate, one is indeed in the logic of the tsunami: initially, the capital, following an earth tremor, is withdrawn suddenly and with crash of the markets (they do not disappear, coming simply, crisis of the values and inflation oblige, to in general inflate the floods of the dismounted sea of the raw materials and oil in particular; then, in the second time, they will return, mechanically, towards the financial markets, carrying all - with the rise - on their passage…. One already the first steps of this large drive out-crossed bus, when sovereign funds reinflate, the ones after the others, the Western banks, isn't this there saw besides the simple repetition in costumes of a grand opera - baroque to come? … Call us to the 01 47 55 16 62 for an appointment.
PEREZ-CANOSA Richard |
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